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Pepper demand before the new harvest in 2024
|Dec,6,2023
Currently, the pepper export market has remained relatively high. It is believed that foreign customers may be trying to wait for Vietnam to enter a new harvest before making a purchase contract. The following article will predict the pepper market at harvest time around January to April 2024.
First of all, about the supply, Assuming that export demand is low in 2024 after the past 6 years, the world needs to buy about 80 thousand tons of pepper from Vietnam in the first 4 months of the year.
Currently, it is speculated that agents and export companies are still holding about 70 - 80 thousand tons of pepper that can be delivered. If they don't sell, the price will increase from now until the end of the year. Suppose, if agents sell about 20 - 30 thousand tons at this time, then when Vietnam harvests they will buy back 20 - 30 thousand tons to replenish inventory.
Similar to agents, Vietnamese export trading companies are also holding about 20 - 30 thousand tons. If they release inventory now, they will buy back 20 - 30 thousand tons in the off-season. It is expected that domestic speculators hold about 5 thousand tons.
From the 4 points mentioned above, it can be inferred that the need to buy pepper from farmers when the new crop begins is about 125 - 145 thousand tons.
On the other hand, the demand is predicted to be slowing down. Output in 2024 is expected to be 150 - 160 thousand tons.
In previous years, when farmers mainly grew pepper, when the harvest came, they needed to immediately sell 50% of the output to pay for picking and pay debts. Let this 50% ratio be the maximum amount to sell, about 80 thousand tons. Because currently more than half of the area has been intercropped by farmers with many other crops, especially durian and coffee, which are currently generating quite good income, it is expected that farmers will only sell about 30% of the total output. crop volume. This means that the maximum sales level is about 50 thousand tons. From there, in the first 4 months of the year, the total amount of goods sold on the market was about 50 - 80 thousand tons.
The market has 2 possibilities:
1. Because the current supply is not abundant but foreign customers' inventory is not yet exhausted, the struggle continues. If foreign customers buy from now, the price will gradually increase until the season comes.
2. If foreign customers hold off on buying to save their buying needs when Vietnam enters the harvest season, prices will increase sharply right in the middle of harvest time.
According to giatieu.com
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