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|Dec 31,2023

Pepper market developments in 2024 depend on many factors such as supply in the context of increasingly narrowing planting areas.


Pepper prices increased sharply at the end of the year

Dự báo thị trường hồ tiêu 2024

According to preliminary data from the General Department of Customs on the pepper export situation in the first half of December 2023, it reached 10,069 tons of pepper of all kinds, with a turnover value of 37.80 million USD, accumulated until mid-December 2023. reaching 255,681 tons, up 35.32% in volume and 0.72% in value over the same period last year.

The average export price of pepper during the period reached 3,755 USD/ton, down 2.19% compared to the average export price of November 2023.

In November 2023, Vietnam exported 20,238 tons of pepper with a value of 77.7 million USD, an increase of 23.7% in volume and an increase of 28.4% in value compared to the same period last year. Thus, this is the 4th consecutive month that pepper exports have increased compared to the same period as well as 2021. This shows that demand is positively improving.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's average export price of pepper in November increased for the second consecutive month compared to the previous month, with an increase of 1.8% to 3,839 USD/ton. At the same time, compared to the same period last year, it increased by 3.8%. But in 11 months, the average export price of pepper still decreased by 21.3% compared to the same period in 2022, reaching 3,392 USD/ton.

Regarding the market, Vietnamese pepper is currently present in more than 120 countries and territories. Of which, China is the largest export market after 11 months with a volume of 59,041 tons, worth 134.7 million USD, an increase of 3.2 times in volume and 3.3 times in value compared to the same period last year. price. This market accounts for 24% of Vietnam's total pepper export volume compared to 8.8% of the same period.

Meanwhile, inflation and interest rates remaining at high levels have caused export orders to the US market and many markets in Europe to decline.

In the domestic market, in the first half of December alone, the price of black pepper in the Central Highlands provinces increased 12-14% (8,500 - 10,000 VND/kg) compared to the end of last month to 79,500 - 82,000 VND/kg. kg, the highest level recorded since March 2022. From the beginning of November until now, the domestic price of black pepper has increased by about 20 - 22%.

Continue to maintain the leading position in exports

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), Vietnam is one of the largest spice producers and exporters in the world, accounting for about 11% of the global market share in 2022, ranking first in terms of producing and exporting pepper and cinnamon.

However, pepper area and output are decreasing, in 2020 the area will be more than 130,000 hectares, in 2023 there will be only 120,000 hectares, the output will reach 190,000 tons. Currently, the profit of durian trees is 20 times higher than that of pepper trees.
Therefore, it is predicted that pepper area will further decrease because farmers are massively cutting down pepper and switching to growing durian, which could lead to a decrease in Vietnam's pepper output in 2024 compared to 2023.

According to the general assessment of businesses, pepper output in the 2023-2024 crop year is expected to decrease by 10-15% to 160,000-165,000 tons due to the trend of switching to growing other more economically effective fruit trees.

Typically in Dak Lak province, some businesses said that the area is mainly concentrated in Cu Kuin, Ea Hleo, Chu M'gar, Krong Nang, where many people intercrop durian, due to aging, death and lack of population. plant more. In many places, people are hesitating whether to switch to growing durian or coffee after the 2024 harvest.

According to a survey of VPSA member businesses, Dak Lak still has 30 - 70% of its area depending on the region. In Dak Nong, the garden situation is still good, but the area has shrunk, with a lot of coffee and durian mixed in.

Previously, VPSA commented that if the cutting of pepper to switch to growing fruit trees was prolonged, there could be a shortage of supply in the next 3 years.

However, Vietnam continues to maintain its position as the world's largest pepper exporter, accounting for about 60% of the market share. Far behind the second place country is Brazil with 73,300 tons, worth 227.7 million USD.

At the same time, considering the general difficult context of the market, Vietnam is the only country that recorded an increase in export volume while other leading producing countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, India, Cambodia... all decreased. reduce.

In the context that demand from major markets such as the US and EU is showing signs of recovery, domestic and export pepper prices have continuously increased again recently, pepper is expected to soon regain its position. billion-dollar export industry in 2024.

According to

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