Spent five months in a row, prices for an amazingly quiet and has lost nearly 27% during this period. There are reports that the Market Committee Term (FMC) has started against the formation of a consortium on pepper, and this has led to the liquidation of the powerful place.
Predictions of higher yields, quality concerns and the need to reduce the foreign market making predictions about the consumer price trend fell down.
Can see the prices for this year rather unusual fluctuations. On NCDEX trading floor, this year, prices start at Rs 32,000 / kg and gradually reduced to 29,500 crore in mid-February but quickly recovered and jumped to an all-time high of Rs 45,700. However, after having firmly established in many months, the consumer price is trading in the futures market at Rs 33,500 / quintal for the February contract.
So you double by the slow delivery of support price for the near contract, while the contract away forced to reduce prices. The number of open contracts of the near term also shows the narrow fit.
Rumors and then
There are rumors that the formation of a group is the driving force for the previous price hikes. Expect high prices to attract market participants accumulated more position. However, the adjusted price increase earlier and stronger after liquidation term Market Commission (FMC) to launch an investigation against abnormal price fluctuations.
Better crop expectations in the domestic market as well as overseas markets influence the price. The liquidation of the market before the new service is delivered to have put pressure on the market sentiments. Pepper harvest will begin in mid-December in the state of Kerala and deliveries will start up in January.
Effect of parity
Indian pepper output last year fell to a low for years while only 43,000 tons compared with an annual average production of 50,000 to 55,000 tons. Indian pepper output in 2010/11 to 48,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, the output of the current crop year is expected to increase to 55,000 to 60,000 tons. Pepper production in Vietnam this year fell to 100,000 tonnes compared with 110,000 tonnes in 2011.
The high price of the Indian parity between the domestic market and international market has limited exports. According to sources, the exporters are selling their position in the domestic market at prices inconsistent. On the world market, the Indian parity is valued at approximately $ 7,500 / ton, while in August of this objective in cost from $ 8,400 - $ 8,500 / ton.
Meanwhile, Indian pepper is priced higher than with objectives other countries on the world market and this has reduced the demand for Indian pepper. Predicted global sales volume increases and rupee volatility also influence the price.
According to the report of the International Pepper Community (IPC), in the first 10 months of 2012, India exported about 15,700 tonnes compared with 18,000 tonnes in the same period last year. Estimated in October India has exported about 1,000 tonnes compared to 2,500 tonnes in the same period last year. Anyhow until the end of the year, it is estimated that India will export nearly 17,500 tons. In the first 10 months of 2012, the total export volume of Vietnam's 102,340 tons, down 12% from 115,780 tonnes in the same period last year. Predicted exports of Vietnam this year will reach about 110,000 tons.
Although a significant downward trend on the trading floor was anticipated due to weak fundamentals, but more likely the need for winter and the holiday season can help limit the decline in the short term. Expected price could be at 30,000 - 33,000 crore, but the sell-off below this can cause further weakness. Appropriate transaction price of over 36,000 crore will be the signal for a new bull.

Power Business Line / Giacaphe.vn - 12/14/2012