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THE INCREASE IN COFFEE PRICES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2024?

|Jan 5th, 2024|

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In the last days of 2023, coffee prices have returned to the old record level of 70,000 VND/kg. Prices increase even during harvest time - something rarely seen so far. For the whole year 2023, coffee prices will increase by up to 70%. The heat continues to spread into 2024 when prices remain around 68,000 - 69,000 VND/kg.

As the world's largest Robusta coffee exporter, price fluctuations in the domestic market also affect prices on the international floor. Robusta coffee futures prices on the London exchange also reached a record level with the January 2024 futures contract reaching 3,075 USD/ton. According to the Agency of Foreign Trade, in the coming time, Vietnam's coffee industry will continue to benefit because Robusta coffee prices will remain high, possibly even peaking due to concerns about supply shortages. “In 2024, there will be a lot of conflicting information affecting global coffee prices. In the first quarter of 2024, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices will remain high due to concerns about supply shortages and the lowest inventory in the past 12 years," said the Agency of Foreign Trade.

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Ms. Vanúsia Nogueira, Executive Director, International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that in 2024 the world's demand for Robusta coffee will still increase and Vietnam will have an advantage over Brazil in the next 6 months. "Europe can almost only rely on Vietnam to buy Robusta coffee. Therefore, it is likely that coffee prices in Vietnam will continue to increase in 2024, even the highest in the world," Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of Intimex Group, commented at the 27th Asian International Coffee Conference (Coffee Outlook). According to him, with the current situation, it only takes until April - May 2024 to sell out all goods.

Commenting on domestic coffee price developments, Vicofa affirmed that Vietnamese coffee prices will increase at least until April 2024, before Indonesia enters the new crop and it is possible that Vietnamese green coffee will be the most expensive in the world in 2024. When commenting on the global coffee supply and demand situation, Mr. Steve Wateridge, Head of Research, Tropical Research Services said, the world will not lack or encounter difficulties in Arabica supply, but there will be difficulties with Robusta due to high demand for this type, pushing up Robusta coffee prices in the 2023-2024 crop year. The difference between Arabica and Robusta coffee will change. The harvest will end 6 months earlier than other coffee growing countries, which is the advantage of Vietnamese coffee and next year, if there is a suitable crop, we can catch up with this trend.

 

Team Vinapro

(According to thitruongtaichinhtiente.vn)

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