Update on cashew market report April 2021

VINAPRO GROUP

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Figures from Vietnam

Import

Vinacas reported that Vietnam imported a total of 473,317 mt RCN in March 2021, which is 446.45% more than in March last year. In January-March, imports increased by 257.26% compared to last year.

Of the 473,317 mt imported, a staggering 367,210 mt came from Cambodia.

Because these are unique figures, never heard of or seen before, we asked Vinacas if these numbers were correct. They replied that the data and information were collected from Vietnam’s customs bodies and had been double-checked.

We also checked with some processors in Vietnam, and although most thought that these numbers were very high, some could imagine these numbers to be correct.

The huge quantity from Cambodia is very surprising since we thought that the general feeling in the market was that the total crop in Cambodia would be between 250,000-300,000 mt. To now see this enormous quantity from Cambodia in March, indicates that the crop is much bigger than anticipated.

On top of that, Vietnam imported 7,881.48 mt of raw cashew kernels with Testa, the equivalent of 35,029 mt RCN. That is 4% more than March 2020, and overall, imports of kernels with Testa increased in 2021 by 28% because of large quantities imported in January.
Imports Cashew RCN to Vietnam 03-2021

Export

Vietnam exported 47,443 mt of cashew kernels in March 2021. It is 0.42% more than the same period last year.
Since the beginning of the year, exports are 15.80% above last year, with 117,377 mt exported since January.

Exports cashew kernels from Vietnam 03-2021

Exports to the United States, China and Europe & Others

United States
To the USA, Vietnam shipped 11,531 mt in March, almost 27% less than last year. Since January, the total exported to the US is also lower than the same period last year with 26,203 mt; which is 19.34% less.

China
4,938 mt were exported to China in March. That is 68.52% more than March last year. And in the past three months, the total volume exported to China reached 11,780 mt; 125.27% more than the same period in 2020.

Europe & Others
30,974 mt were exported to the EU & Others this month. It is 8.44% more than last year and almost double of what was exported there last month. Total exports in January and March are 24.74% higher than last year.

Market dynamics

In our last week’s report, we already wrote that the market was firm and we continue to see this upward trend.
Prices for W320’s from BRC shippers are no longer available below USD 3,00 per lb FOB, and some of the bigger shippers have increased their prices already to USD 3,20-3,30 per lb FOB.

The crop situation in Vietnam continues to be a concern, and so does the crop in Ivory Coast, from where the news is a bit mixed.
Some say that the crop is about 20% lower than expected. However, we have also gathered information that a huge 570,000 mt had already been delivered to exporters warehouses. This is a kind of quantity never seen before in such a short period.
The bigger exporters of RCN have been very, very active on the sourcing side, which is a problem to IVC processors who are not offering kernels at the moment, being unable to source/buy the necessary quantity for their factories.

On top of this all, the freight rates and the space on vessels continue to be a huge problem. Whereas the last two weeks, it seemed that freight rates stabilized and even looked friendlier, the situation this week is an entirely different one again.
For the time being, it is almost impossible to make bookings from Ho Chi Minh City to US ports, and if you are already so lucky to get a booking, the rates are unbelievably high (in excess of USD 0,25 per lb).

Demand has been picking up. Not only for onward positions, such as the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2021, but there has been a run on spot and nearby positions as well.
Obviously, this is fuel to the fire and the reason why prices continue to go up.

Resource: Cornhouse BV